Young voters helped reshape New York City politics in 2025, turning out at record rates and helping power Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the mayoral race. But a new analysis suggests the Democratic primary in New York’s 12th Congressional District may be decided by a much older electorate.
The report, commissioned by AARP New York and conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics, projects that voters age 50 and older will make up 65% to 75% of the electorate in the June 23 primary in the Manhattan district, which is choosing a successor to retiring U.S. Rep. Jerry Nadler. It projects an overall Democratic turnout of 70,000 to 85,000 voters.
