As the 43rd Assembly District election heads into the home stretch before the May 5 special election, Kings County Politics’ asked its’ exclusive political bookie, Stumpy Wagers, to set the odds for political junkies willing to bet their rent controlled apartment on the outcome.
Overall, Stumpy predicted a very close race with possibly just a few hundred votes separating the winner from the other three candidates in the four-person race. And with no Democratic Party candidate on the ballot, the race is well within the margin of error where any of the candidates could win.
That said, here are Stumpy’s odds:
Geoffrey Davis – 5-2 favorite to win.
Pros: Davis has two things that keep him as the front runner – street credibility and name recognition. Like his brother, the late City Councilman James E. Davis, Geoffrey has been the go-to-guy in the community whenever there’s trouble. Somebody dies tragically, he’s at the funeral; there’s an over-saturation of social service providers in a few block radius, he’s meeting with the local block associations; problems at the community board meetings, Davis weighs in for the oppressed. You can’t buy street cred or name recognition.
Cons: Davis’ opponents are pummeling him on brushes with the law regarding past relationships. As he points out, a lot of it comes from a former district leader, whose own credibility is very suspect, but perception is everything. He, like his brother, is also very much an independent thinker, who doesn’t adhere to party or union lines, but rather forms his political views on a case-by-case basis, and thus doesn’t have many institutional endorsements.
Shirley Patterson – 3-1 to win
Pros: Like Davis, Shirley is a Democratic Party District leader and has a good grasp on local issues. She also has the strong support of Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, local State Sen. Jesse Hamilton, and the old Crown Heights Democratic Party machine dating back to Clarence Norman. She also has some union support, most notably from the United Federation Of Teachers.
CONS: She hasn’t been seen a lot on the campaign trail and appears to let both her handlers and the Independence Party, the line on which she’s running, do a lot of the work. She also may split some of the women’s vote to Diane Richardson, who is also running.
Menachem (Mendy) Raitport – 4-1 to win
Pros: Mendy is the lone Republican in the race and will benefit from the other three candidates – all of who lean Democratic and are black – into taking from each other’s vote. He is a member of the Chabad Jewish community of Crown Heights and could win if he gets this base out. He also comes across as an honorable man, who is a local business owner with a wife and eight children.
Cons: While Raitport has several admirable core Republican traits such as self-reliance and belief in less government, he has not made a strong effort to find like-minded thinkers in the black community. They are out there, and if Raitport can find even a few hundred like-minded black voters, it may turn the election in his favor.
Diana Richardson – 4-1 to win
Pros: Diana must be somebody’s sister’s cousin’s aunt’s uncle’s brother’s neice’s cousin because she has a tremendous amount of clout with both the progressive Working Families Party and the Clarke family – mother Una and daughter Congresswoman Yevtte Clarke. She’s got by far the most money, union support and outside-the-district influence. This alone could carry the election.
CONS: Take away housing issues, and Diana doesn’t appear to have her finger on the pulse of what’s going on in the community regarding crime, over-saturation of social services programs and black-Jewish relations. Her main base appears to be the Lefferts Gardens portion of the district, which includes a vibrant West Indian community and a vocal white minority.
